2023 Super Bowl Prediction: Our Pick Against the Spread

By comparison, the Eagles’ exceptional receiving duo of DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown, are each expected to catch over 60 yards this week. But Hurts’s performance has been a bit more difficult to forecast, in part because of his versatility.

His line for rushing yards this week is 50.5, close to his season average, which is skewed by a few big games. Hurts put up as many as 157 yards, in Week 12 against the Green Bay Packers, but as few as 10, against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 8.

The books have set Miles Sanders’s rushing yards at 62.8 and Kenneth Gainwell’s at 24.6. If Hurts adds another 50 to that, Kansas City’s defense has a real problem: They went 2-2 in games in which the spread was less than a field goal and in those two losses (to the Bills and the Bengals), Kansas City’s opponents exceeded the 107.3 yards-per-game average the team allowed this season.

That superior defense the Eagles will field against Kansas City has a number of talented personnel that can rotate in and out. They are the most formidable defense in the league, this season having racked up 70 sacks, including 16 from linebacker Haason Reddick, who also tied for the league lead in forced fumbles. He was the sixth-most favored game M.V.P. candidate as of Wednesday. With James Bradberry, Darius Slay and C.J. Gardner-Johnson roaming in the secondary, the Eagles can put a lid on the big passing plays.

The problem is it may not be enough. Mahomes has already had the lowest depth of target this season of his entire career, with fewer than 10 percent of his passes over 20 yards. He’s brought this team to the Super Bowl with a tighter, closer offense and a higher success rate. And Kansas City has the best pass blocking offensive line in the league. Joe Thuney and Creed Humphrey are both first in the league in pass block win rate at their respective positions.

The biggest knock against the Eagles, however, is also the data point most outside the team’s control: Theirs was rated the third-easiest schedule in the N.F.L. In what was expected to be the Eagles’ most significant challenge of the season, the San Francisco 49ers played essentially without a quarterback in the N.F.C. championship game. Though Philadelphia has dominated its opponents, skeptics may not believe the Eagles can win simply because no data exists for the team besting such a tough opponent. Yet.

Article source: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/09/sports/football/super-bowl-bet-spread-eagles-chiefs.html