N.F.L. Playoff Predictions: Our Conference Championship Picks

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City, Sunday, 6:30 p.m., CBS

Line: Kansas City +1 | Total: 47

Patrick Mahomes plans to play through his high ankle sprain this week, but because of the injury Kansas City is home underdog for only the second time this season. Bengals defensive coordinator, Lou Anarumo, has thwarted the quarterback with second-half adjustments in each of their past three meetings, and if Mahomes is going to reverse the losing streak against Cincinnati, he will have to depend on his playmakers to keep the offense moving. That’s especially true given that the forecast calls for below-freezing temperatures and snow that could inhibit big-play gambles.

Mahomes leaned on running back Jerick McKinnon as a passing option this season, where McKinnon averaged a team-high 9.7 yards after catch per reception (usually Travis Kelce’s annual honor). With the quarterback hobbled last week against the Jaguars, McKinnon saw fewer targets, a trend that’s likely to continue if Kansas City needs him as a blocker. That leaves Kelce as the primary safety-valve option, but when these teams met in Week 13, the Bengals defense held Kelce to four receptions and 56 yards, and linebacker Germaine Pratt forced a game-shifting Kelce fumble in the fourth quarter that allowed Cincinnati to seal the win.

The Bengals are steam-rolling teams as they did in the run up to its Super Bowl appearance last year, in no small part because Joe Burrow is taking fewer sacks than he did last season (41 vs. 51 in the regular season). The Kansas City defensive line should generate more pressure than Buffalo did last week without Von Miller, which could pose a problem for a Cincinnati offensive line that has three starters listed as questionable for Sunday. But the Bengals’ late-season win streak coincides with a rebuilt run game, and Joe Mixon’s big day (20 carries for 105 yards) last week was a big reason Buffalo couldn’t key in on Burrow.

Article source: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/26/sports/football/nfl-super-bowl-championship-picks.html