Ukraine War Continues to Slow Global Growth, New Report Says

The global economy won’t tumble into an outright recession. But global growth will decline to 2.2 percent in 2023 from 3.1 percent this year, before rebounding to a 2.7 percent pace in 2024, the report forecast. Inflation in most of the world’s developed and developing economies will cool slightly, to 6.4 percent next year from a blistering 9.4 percent rate in 2022, but continue doing economic damage.

The whirlwind of problems — high energy and food costs, rising interest rates and growing government debt to pay for the fallout — will take the biggest toll on Europe, North America and South America next year, with those regions expected to face painful economic slowdowns and stubbornly high prices, the O.E.C.D. said.

The economies of both the United States and Europe are forecast to expand at an anemic pace of just 0.5 percent next year.

China’s economy is likely to expand by 4.6 percent in 2023, following a pandemic-induced slowdown this year that has slashed its growth rate by more than half.

Efforts by central banks to contain runaway inflation are starting to pay off in some countries, the group said. In Brazil, where the central bank moved swiftly with a series of rate hikes, inflation has started to come down in recent months. In the United States, where the Federal Reserve had unleashed its biggest rate hikes in decades, the latest data suggest some progress is being made in the fight against inflation.

Article source: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/22/business/oecd-global-economy-slowdown.html