Why Are the Giants and Jets Still Considered Underdogs?

Number crunchers who evaluate teams and influence betting lines have not been particularly impressed with either team so far. The Giants are tied with the Bills and the Vikings for second-most wins in the league, and the Jets are tied for fifth. But Jeff Sagarin’s ratings at USA Today rank the Giants 23rd and the Jets 25th of the 32 N.F.L. teams. ESPN’s Power Index ranks the Jets 17th and the Giants 21st. Inpredictable, which uses bookmakers’ lines to construct a ranking, rates the Jets 22nd and the Giants 26th.

Why are the computers and gamblers so down on the Jets and Giants? Well, one big component of such rankings is point differential, and both teams come up a little short there.

The Giants’ five wins all came by single digits; they just haven’t dominated any team yet, the way the league’s elite do. The Jets’ last two wins were impressive: a 40-17 trouncing of the Miami Dolphins and a 27-10 win over the Packers. But their two other wins were close, and their two losses, to the Ravens and the Cincinnati Bengals, were comprehensive.

A result is that the Jets have outscored their opponents by just 15 total points this season, and the Giants’ differential is only 14 points. They rank 11th and 12th in the league in the category.

Another important component to power rankings is strength of schedule. While the Jets have played a reasonably difficult schedule, the Giants have not; the Giants’ opponents so far are 16-19, and Pro Football Reference rates their schedule as 22nd toughest in the league. That means their 5-1 record has to be looked at with slightly cynical eyes.

Article source: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/19/sports/football/giants-jets-underdogs.html