Tokyo Olympics: Health experts warn holding 2020 Summer Games too soon risks spreading coronavirus more
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe told other world leaders last week he wanted the Tokyo Olympics his country is preparing to host to be proof that mankind could “defeat the new coronavirus.”
Hold them too soon, though, and they could reignite the spread of COVID-19.
With the International Olympic Committee announcing Sunday it is giving itself a month to explore its options, the key question becomes when could Tokyo host the Games? If they are postponed, could it be later this year? Or 2021? Or possibly 2022?
According to public health experts, the answer might be further out than Tokyo and IOC organizers would like. Projecting the spread of COVID-19 and how well it is contained might be the most challenging factor and one that could put the IOC in a similar predicament in the future.
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“If they put it on the calendar, they have to be prepared to perhaps move it a second time because we just don’t know when it will be safe enough to proceed,” said Amir Attaran, an epidemiologist and professor of law and medicine at the University of Ottawa. “Could it be in 12 months? Possibly, but are you going to take a big bet on that? Because that’s what the IOC would be doing. Would it be safe in two years? Almost certainly, but are they going to commit right now to two years?”
The IOC’s weekend announcement came among mounting pressure from athlete and sport bodies to postpone the Games. USA Swimming and USA Track and Field both called for their postponement since Friday, as did the Norwegian Olympic Committee.
The decision to explore further options puts the IOC in the position of trying to gauge when it will be safe to host them. It is working in consultation with the World Health Organization, which earlier this month declared the spread of COVID-19 a pandemic.
