Could coronavirus become a pandemic? What to know about the classification
Global fears escalate as coronavirus spreads around the world
The highly-contagious coronavirus continues to spread despite health officials’ best efforts to contain the outbreak; Fox News medical contributor Dr. Marc Siegel reacts.
The outbreak of the novel coronavirus that’s sickened more than 70,000 people and killed some 2,600 others “absolutely” has the potential to become a pandemic, World Health Organization (WHO) chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told reporters on Monday.
When asked if the virus has “pandemic potential,” Tedros, speaking in Geneva, said, “absolutely, yes.” But, he noted, “for the moment we’re not witnessing the uncontained global spread of this virus.”
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“I have spoken consistently about the need for facts, not fear. Using the word pandemic now does not fit the facts but it may certainly cause fear,” Tedros added.
But what is a pandemic?
Epidemiologists — simply put, those who study disease outbreaks in human populations — typically look at disease prevalence, incidence, and either known or unknown disease pathways, among other factors, when describing a disease event, according to Verywell Health. The terms “sporadic,” “cluster,” “endemic,” “hyperendemic,” “epidemic,” “outbreak,” and “pandemic,” are often those used to describe different disease events.
To understand a pandemic, however, it’s important to first know the term epidemic — or what one report defines as an “outbreak that spreads over a large geographical area.” The Zika virus that began in Brazil in 2014, the Ebola outbreak in West Africa that began the same year, as well as the ongoing opioid crisis in the U.S., are all considered to be examples of an epidemic, which is also described as a problem “that has grown out of control,” according to Verywell Health.
A pandemic, on the other hand, “refers to an epidemic that has spread over several countries or continents, usually affecting a large number of people,” according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The 1918 Spanish influenza is perhaps the most infamous example of a pandemic. The 2003 outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) — which also began in China — was also considered to be a pandemic.
There are typically different phases of pandemics. For instance, the WHO has a pandemic alert system for the flu, ranging from Phase 1 to Phase 6. Phase 1 means there is a low risk of a flu pandemic, while Phase 6 which refers to a “full-blown pandemic.”
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It’s not clear whether coronavirus, known as COVID-19, will meet the requirements for being classified as a pandemic, but Michael Ryan, director of WHO’s emergency program, said that more must be understood about the virus’ transmission through investigations.
“What we don’t understand yet in COVID-19 are the absolute transmission dynamics,” he said, noting that in China there’s been a significant drop in cases. “That goes against the logic of pandemic.”
Article source: https://www.foxnews.com/health/what-is-pandemic-coronavirus