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The Bubble: By undoing Obama accomplishments, Trump let economy soar, conservatives say

  • June 09, 2018
  • Washington

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President Trump’s once bitter political enemy Mitt Romney calling forth a prediction: Trump will handily win his reelection come 2020. Nathan Rousseau Smith explains why.
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Each week, USA TODAY’s OnPolitics blog takes a look at how media from the left and the right reacted to a political news story, giving liberals and conservatives a peek into the other’s media bubble.

This week, commentators responded to outstanding jobs reports and economic data that signaled a continued economic expansion under President Trump. 

Conservatives, despite apprehension toward Trump’s tariffs and trade policies, said Trump clearly deserves the credit for removing the Obama-era constraints from American businesses. They said the booming economy will prevent a Democratic wave in the 2018 midterm elections and will seal the president’s re-election in 2020. 

Liberals pointed to slow wage growth and wealth inequality to show that all is not perfect in Trump’s economy and said there were many signs that the current gains won’t continue. 

Last week: On Samantha Bee, Trump’s the one with the double standard, liberals say

Conservative bubble: Obama deserves credit for giving Trump bad policies to repeal

“Liberals have opposed virtually every move President Trump has taken on the economy, which makes it inconvenient for them that economic conditions are so universally positive,” wrote Stephen Moore and Arthur Laffer in the Wall Street Journal. “It is hard to find a single indicator that isn’t pointed in a bullish direction. That’s why the left is now forced to argue that Mr. Trump’s economic success is really the continuation of a trend that began under President Obama.”

While Moore and Laffer concede that Obama deserves “credit for the long and durable recovery,” but they say it was the “weakest recovery since the Great Depression” and that it “left much of the country behind.” 

“Obama might be justified in taking credit for today’s economy if his successor had adopted and carried on his policies. Instead, Mr. Trump has reversed nearly every Obama rule, edict and law that he can legally overturn,” they said. “In that sense, they really did set up President Trump for this big economic rally — by giving him bad policies to repeal.”

More: There are now more job openings than there are people out of work

Liberal bubble: GOP will use economy to distract from Trump

It makes sense for the Democrats to run on restraining or impeaching Trump in the 2018 midterms, said The New Yorker‘s John Cassidy. But they need to hone an economic message as well because “Democrats will also have to contend with Republican efforts to distract from Trump’s manifest unfitness for office. It’s now clear that these efforts will focus on the economy.” 

As good as the economic news is, there is still modest wage growth, depressed median household incomes and wealth inequality, Cassidy said. In addition, the impact of a potential trade war remains to be seen and the current rate of economic growth isn’t expected to last. 

In short, the Democrats have some strong arguments they can make to counter the Republican claim that everything is tickety-boo. Moreover, there are plenty of historical precedents for the party in the White House losing many seats in the midterms, despite a healthy-seeming economy.

More: Business economists worry about a possible recession in 2020

Conservative bubble: The Trump Miracle 

Radio host Wayne Allyn Root refers to the economic turnaround as “The Trump Miracle” and believes Trump “is our generation’s Reagan.”

“Actually, Trump may actually be better than Reagan,” Root said in a column for Townhall. “Reagan produced millions of good-paying middle class jobs, unprecedented prosperity and the greatest economic expansion in world history. Trump is on track to surpass Reagan’s economic success.”

“It’s a new day under President Trump,” said Root, who thinks Trump should win a Nobel prize in economics. “We are free to make money again. We are free to practice capitalism without guilt. The sun is out. The skies are blue. There’s a job in every pot. The Trump Miracle lives.” 

More: Trump just may be what international trade needs

Liberal bubble: Don’t believe the hype 

Cheery economic data “should not blind us to the harsh reality facing most Americans,” said The Nation‘s editor and publisher, Katrina vanden Heuvel, in a column in the Washington Post.  

“America is a wealthy country with millions of struggling people,” she said. “Compared with their peers in other industrialized nations, Americans live shorter, more stressful, less healthy lives while working longer hours with fewer vacations. Our stunning decline in life expectancy is largely because of diseases of despair — addiction, suicide and depression.” 

Trump’s policies only make the real problem — income inequality — worse, vanden Heuvel said. And the “next downturn will erase what gains there have been and leave most Americans in worse straits. For all of his ‘America First’ bluster, Trump’s misplaced priorities will only add to the misery.”

Trade Partnership: Trump’s ‘tough’ trade moves are just making us lose jobs

Conservative bubble: Trump got government out of the way

Under Trump, “job creators” have been able to conduct their business without government getting in the way, wrote the Washington Examiner‘s editorial board. “Instead of being demonized or harassed by Democrat Hillary Clinton’s bureaucrats, as they were by Obama’s, businesses have enjoyed a degree of regulatory certainty and respect from the Trump administration,” the Examiner’s board said. 

But there is still work to be done, it said. “Trump needs to end his dreadful trade policies and bring tariffs down” and “Congress needs to get its act together and slash the spending and borrowing.” Otherwise, Republicans risk losing power to the Democrats.

“Why hand the keys to the economy to the party that routinely slashes the tires?” the editorial asked. 

More: Unemployment rate falls to 3.8% as employers add 223,000 jobs in May

Liberal bubble: The economic expansion is a bubble waiting to pop 

Despite positive jobs numbers and strong manufacturing sentiment, “there are actually a rising number of reasons to fret that the party is nearing an end,” said Tim Mullaney in a post for MartketWatch. Mullaney cited rising interest rates, declining birth rates and low real wages as signs of trouble, but said the real cause for concern is the president himself. 

“Every expansion ends when something it’s based on rots — commercial real estate in 1990, tech-stock valuations in 2000, the housing bubble in 2007,” he wrote. “The thing rotting now is confidence in the steadiness of the man in charge, an element of the post-2008 expansion we should appreciate more.

“Trade policy is a symptom of the disease, fewer babies and housing sales signs of its effects. And Trump’s public spinning, with a staff recently stripped of nearly all of its adults, is a sign that it’s likely to get a lot worse.”

More: Donald Trump promised a trade war. Should we let his voters get what they asked for?

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During the Great Recession, U.S. gross domestic product declined 4.3%. Since then, the economy has rebounded and is now in one of the longest periods of expansion on record. As the economy recovered, the U.S. labor market also began to improve. The unemployment rate dropped from 8.1% in 2012 to 4.4% in 2017, and total employment increased by over five million people. Personal income also grew by 11.2% across the nation in that time frame, while per capita personal income increased by 7.2%. To determine the states where personal incomes are booming, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed total personal income change from the the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal incomes in the 16 states listed here grew by more than the nations 11.2% growth rate from 2012 to 2017.16. North Carolina: Personal income growth (2012-2017): +12.5%. North Carolina's population grew at a 5.0% pace between 2012 and 2017 as the state attracted nearly 475,000 new residents. With North Carolina's personal income increasing by 12.5% since 2012, financial prosperity may have been a driving factor in migration.15. Hawaii: Personal income growth (2012-2017): +12.5%. Though Hawaii is often considered a vacation destination, it is also has one of the best job markets in the country. Hawaii's annual unemployment rate of just 2.4% is the lowest in the nation. As more people in the labor force find work, personal income increases.14. Michigan: Personal income growth (2012-2017): +12.6%. Michigan's economy has undergone a significant turnaround in recent years. The state's unemployment improved significantly, dropping from 10.4% in 2011 to 4.6% in 2017. This may be partly behind the state's 12.6% increase in personal income since 2012.13. Delaware: Personal income growth (2012-2017): +12.7%. No state has a higher share of workers in the financial sector than Delaware. Some 10.5% of the state's labor force works in the finance sector, a generally high-paying industry. Employment in Delaware's finance industry grew by 5.7% over the last decade, one of the higher growth rates for the industry nationwide.12. Tennessee: Personal income growth (2012-2017): +12.8%. Tennessee added over 80,000 professional and business service jobs over the last 10 years, a 25.8% increase. The professional and business service sector is one of the higher-paying industries, and the industry's employment increase likely contributed to the Volunteer State's 12.8% increase in personal income since 2012.11. South Carolina: Personal income growth (2012-2017): +15.8%. Personal income in South Carolina has grown by 15.8% since 2012, likely because more people in the state have become employed. The unemployment rate declined from 9.2% in 2011 to 4.3% in 2017, one of the steepest drops in the nation. Employment in the state increased by 12.2% over that period, one of the larger increases of any state.10. Florida: Personal income growth (2012-2017): +16.2%. As Florida's population has grown more than any state in the country, personal incomes are also growing faster than most other states. A net of over 1.9 million people have migrated to the Sunshine State since 2010, a 10.3% growth rate. Both figures are higher than any other state.9. Georgia: Personal income growth (2012-2017): +16.6%. Georgia's personal income grew by 16.6% between 2012 and 2017, largely bolstered by the state's trade, transportation, and utilities industry. The sector accounts for 21.1% of all Georgia jobs and employment in the industry has grown 5.3% over the last 10 years.8. California: Personal income growth (2012-2017): +16.6%. As home to Silicon Valley, California is the hub of America's high-paying tech jobs. Employment in California's information industry grew 12.0% over the past decade, a time when the American information industry lost 7.8% of its jobs. Though it accounts for just 3.1% of California's employment, the high-paying information sector has likely contributed to rising personal income in California.7. Oregon: Personal income growth (2012-2017): +17.5%. Personal income rose significantly in Oregon between 2012 and 2017, and it appears that the improvement resulted in a number of state residents exiting poverty. The poverty rate in Oregon dropped from 17.2% in 2012 to 13.3% in 2016 -- the largest percentage point drop of any state during that time.6. Arizona: Personal income growth (2012-2017): +18.1%. Arizona representatives have convinced several companies to relocate from California, bolstering the state's tech and financial sectors. Over the last 10 years, the number of workers in Arizona's information industry grew 8.7% and its financial industry spiked 14.6% during the same time -- both among the highest growth rates of any state.5. Washington: Personal income growth (2012-2017): +18.2%. Major tech companies like Amazon are likely the key catalysts behind Washington's high personal income growth. Some 3.8% of workers in Washington are employed in the information industry, a higher share than in any other state. The state's tech industry has undergone massive growth over the last decade, with the number of jobs ballooning 23.5% over the last 10 years.4. Nevada: Personal income growth (2012-2017): +18.5%. Though Nevada is famous for Las Vegas, the state's leisure and hospitality industry grew less than that of every other state since 2007. Nevada's personal income growth was likely helped most by the education and health services sector, which grew its workforce 43.6% since 2007 and now employs 9.9% the state's labor force.3. Colorado: Personal income growth (2012-2017): +18.7%. Colorado's unemployment rate dropped by more than 5 percentage points since 2012 through 2017, one of the largest drops in the country. The leisure and hospitality sector added 63,000 jobs in the past decade, which likely contributed to the state's rise in personal income. It also helped offset the employment decline in Colorado's information industry, which shrank by 4,700 jobs, or 6.2%, over the same time.2. Idaho: Personal income growth (2012-2017): +19.0%. Over the past five years, Idaho's employment increased 15.4%, likely contributing to the Gem State's 19.0% personal income growth. The number of manufacturing jobs nationwide declined by more than 10% over the past 10 years. In Idaho, however, the manufacturing industry increased slightly, and it currently makes up 9.3% of the state's workforce.1. Utah: Personal income growth (2012-2017): +20.9%. Utah's personal income has grown by 20.9% since 2012, the highest rate of growth of all 50 states. This boost has come as the state workforce has also grown faster than any other state. Between 2012 and 2017, state employment grew from or seeking work grew from 1.25 million to 1.47 million. That 17.4% increase was the largest of any state. Utah's growing tech industry, which tends to have growing and high wages, likely helped contribute to the state's nation-leading income growth.nbsp;

  • During the Great Recession, U.S. gross domestic product declined 4.3%. Since then, the economy has rebounded and is now in one of the longest periods of expansion on record. As the economy recovered, the U.S. labor market also began to improve. The unemployment rate dropped from 8.1% in 2012 to 4.4% in 2017, and total employment increased by over five million people. Personal income also grew by 11.2% across the nation in that time frame, while per capita personal income increased by 7.2%. To determine the states where personal incomes are booming, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed total personal income change from the the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal incomes in the 16 states listed here grew by more than the nations 11.2% growth rate from 2012 to 2017.1 of 17
  • 16. North Carolina: Personal income growth (2012-2017): +12.5%. North Carolina's population grew at a 5.0% pace between 2012 and 2017 as the state attracted nearly 475,000 new residents. With North Carolina's personal income increasing by 12.5% since 2012, financial prosperity may have been a driving factor in migration.2 of 17
  • 15. Hawaii: Personal income growth (2012-2017): +12.5%. Though Hawaii is often considered a vacation destination, it is also has one of the best job markets in the country. Hawaii's annual unemployment rate of just 2.4% is the lowest in the nation. As more people in the labor force find work, personal income increases.3 of 17
  • 14. Michigan: Personal income growth (2012-2017): +12.6%. Michigan's economy has undergone a significant turnaround in recent years. The state's unemployment improved significantly, dropping from 10.4% in 2011 to 4.6% in 2017. This may be partly behind the state's 12.6% increase in personal income since 2012.4 of 17
  • 13. Delaware: Personal income growth (2012-2017): +12.7%. No state has a higher share of workers in the financial sector than Delaware. Some 10.5% of the state's labor force works in the finance sector, a generally high-paying industry. Employment in Delaware's finance industry grew by 5.7% over the last decade, one of the higher growth rates for the industry nationwide.5 of 17
  • 12. Tennessee: Personal income growth (2012-2017): +12.8%. Tennessee added over 80,000 professional and business service jobs over the last 10 years, a 25.8% increase. The professional and business service sector is one of the higher-paying industries, and the industry's employment increase likely contributed to the Volunteer State's 12.8% increase in personal income since 2012.6 of 17
  • 11. South Carolina: Personal income growth (2012-2017): +15.8%. Personal income in South Carolina has grown by 15.8% since 2012, likely because more people in the state have become employed. The unemployment rate declined from 9.2% in 2011 to 4.3% in 2017, one of the steepest drops in the nation. Employment in the state increased by 12.2% over that period, one of the larger increases of any state.7 of 17
  • 10. Florida: Personal income growth (2012-2017): +16.2%. As Florida's population has grown more than any state in the country, personal incomes are also growing faster than most other states. A net of over 1.9 million people have migrated to the Sunshine State since 2010, a 10.3% growth rate. Both figures are higher than any other state.8 of 17
  • 9. Georgia: Personal income growth (2012-2017): +16.6%. Georgia's personal income grew by 16.6% between 2012 and 2017, largely bolstered by the state's trade, transportation, and utilities industry. The sector accounts for 21.1% of all Georgia jobs and employment in the industry has grown 5.3% over the last 10 years.9 of 17
  • 8. California: Personal income growth (2012-2017): +16.6%. As home to Silicon Valley, California is the hub of America's high-paying tech jobs. Employment in California's information industry grew 12.0% over the past decade, a time when the American information industry lost 7.8% of its jobs. Though it accounts for just 3.1% of California's employment, the high-paying information sector has likely contributed to rising personal income in California.10 of 17
  • 7. Oregon: Personal income growth (2012-2017): +17.5%. Personal income rose significantly in Oregon between 2012 and 2017, and it appears that the improvement resulted in a number of state residents exiting poverty. The poverty rate in Oregon dropped from 17.2% in 2012 to 13.3% in 2016 -- the largest percentage point drop of any state during that time.11 of 17
  • 6. Arizona: Personal income growth (2012-2017): +18.1%. Arizona representatives have convinced several companies to relocate from California, bolstering the state's tech and financial sectors. Over the last 10 years, the number of workers in Arizona's information industry grew 8.7% and its financial industry spiked 14.6% during the same time -- both among the highest growth rates of any state.12 of 17
  • 5. Washington: Personal income growth (2012-2017): +18.2%. Major tech companies like Amazon are likely the key catalysts behind Washington's high personal income growth. Some 3.8% of workers in Washington are employed in the information industry, a higher share than in any other state. The state's tech industry has undergone massive growth over the last decade, with the number of jobs ballooning 23.5% over the last 10 years.13 of 17
  • 4. Nevada: Personal income growth (2012-2017): +18.5%. Though Nevada is famous for Las Vegas, the state's leisure and hospitality industry grew less than that of every other state since 2007. Nevada's personal income growth was likely helped most by the education and health services sector, which grew its workforce 43.6% since 2007 and now employs 9.9% the state's labor force.14 of 17
  • 3. Colorado: Personal income growth (2012-2017): +18.7%. Colorado's unemployment rate dropped by more than 5 percentage points since 2012 through 2017, one of the largest drops in the country. The leisure and hospitality sector added 63,000 jobs in the past decade, which likely contributed to the state's rise in personal income. It also helped offset the employment decline in Colorado's information industry, which shrank by 4,700 jobs, or 6.2%, over the same time.15 of 17
  • 2. Idaho: Personal income growth (2012-2017): +19.0%. Over the past five years, Idaho's employment increased 15.4%, likely contributing to the Gem State's 19.0% personal income growth. The number of manufacturing jobs nationwide declined by more than 10% over the past 10 years. In Idaho, however, the manufacturing industry increased slightly, and it currently makes up 9.3% of the state's workforce.16 of 17
  • 1. Utah: Personal income growth (2012-2017): +20.9%. Utah's personal income has grown by 20.9% since 2012, the highest rate of growth of all 50 states. This boost has come as the state workforce has also grown faster than any other state. Between 2012 and 2017, state employment grew from or seeking work grew from 1.25 million to 1.47 million. That 17.4% increase was the largest of any state. Utah's growing tech industry, which tends to have growing and high wages, likely helped contribute to the state's nation-leading income growth.nbsp;17 of 17

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